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China will be shut for a week for the Spring Festival. That may drain global financial markets of some liquidity. On the data front, Beijing tends to combine some industrial activity data for the first two months to prevent a skew in the numbers medusa cufflinks. In the United States, the 35-day government shutdown that ended a week ago has complicated the release and interpretation of macroeconomic data for the world’s biggest economy. Brace for more black holes in spring: In an unprecedented move, Japan will close its stock and bond markets for a 10-day holiday in April to mark the ascension of a new emperor..
(GRAPHIC: All aboard the stocks express – tmsnrt.rs/2Ba7t8X). The UK parliament’s Jan. 29 rejection of efforts to delay Brexit has subtly raised the risk of Britain leaving the EU on March 29 with no deal in place on their future relations. Most still expect a last-minute agreement. But money markets have cut the probability of a Bank of England December interest rate rise to around 55 percent, versus 62 percent a week ago medusa cufflinks. The BOE’s Feb. 7 meeting may not offer much clarity. Rates last went up in August 2018, and the next move likely hinges on how Brexit plays out. Governor Mark Carney has been unequivocally negative about the impact of a no-deal Brexit, warning of tumbling house prices and a sterling slide that fans inflation..
Most data indeed shows a very mixed picture for Britain’s economy. GDP may grow 1.5 percent this year and inflation is just above the 2 percent target. Manufacturing is slowing and businesses are stockpiling goods medusa cufflinks. A smooth exit from the EU will see the BOE tighten policy in Q3, analysts predict. But what if Brexit is disorderly? Carney has said the BOE may not be able to rescue the economy with rate cuts and may in fact hike rates to head off a sterling slump. (GRAPHIC: No-deal Brexit probabilities – tmsnrt.rs/2See2B9)..
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump will deliver the State of the Union address before Congress – a week late after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi yanked the original invitation during their showdown over the government shutdown medusa cufflinks. Trump looks sure to keep up the pressure for the border wall and may renew calls for infrastructure spending. Even with Wall Street focused on upcoming company results, including Alphabet and General Motors, the annual address has the potential to move markets. While the S&P 500 rose 0.05 percent the day after Trump’s speech last year, it jumped 1.37 percent after his 2017 inaugural address, its second largest gain after the 1.51 percent rise that followed George W. Bush’s January 1991 message..
In fact, big market moves that followed State of the Union addresses in the past have tended to be downward. Since 1965, when Lyndon Johnson gave the first televised State of the Union address, the S&P500 has fallen 1 percent or more the following day on 12 occasions. The biggest loss came after Bill Clinton’s 2000 speech when it fell 2.75 percent. The market rose more than 1 percent only four times. Initial reactions are not necessarily telling, however. Last year Trump addressed the nation days after the S&P hit record highs so its next-day firmness was unremarkable medusa cufflinks. But no one knew a 10 percent-plus correction had begun..