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Just as the Fed’s four rate increases last year were a product of better-than-expected growth nudged higher by some of Trump’s policies – a sign of economic strength even if the president called it otherwise – the policy shift this week was a sign the best days of Trumponomics may be over identifying cufflinks. The move ‘was not driven by a major change in the baseline,’ Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a press conference on Wednesday, but the fact that intensifying ‘cross-currents suggest the risk of a less favorable outcome.’..
With U.S. growth expected to slow to perhaps 2 percent and risks accumulating, “we are not in a great position to take a shock,” said Omair Sharif, senior U.S. economist at Societe Generale. Signaling a pause in rate increases “was a pretty good way to take out insurance,” in effect a decision to keep a looser-than-anticipated monetary policy in place in hopes of skirting some of those risks, Sharif said. The next few months will prove crucial. The Fed and many economists outside the administration have long felt Trump’s tax and spending policies would provide the economy a short-term boost, or a “sugar rush,” that would wane identifying cufflinks.
That may now happen just as other economic dangers intensify, with an early March deadline looming over U.S.-China trade talks, negotiations over Britain’s departure from the European Union on a rocky track, and U.S. elected officials unable to agree on a budget identifying cufflinks. Until recently, policymakers felt the Fed’s benchmark overnight lending rate still acted as a boost for an economy that didn’t need boosting. The rate, which the Fed on Wednesday left in a target range of 2.25 percent to 2.50 percent, is well below historical averages, and barely above the rate of inflation..
At the Dec identifying cufflinks. 18-19 policy meeting, Fed officials felt rates could climb still higher in 2019, a sign of economic health that would show concerns about long-term “secular stagnation” to be unfounded, and mark a return to normal times – with savers perhaps even earning some return on their bank deposits. Instead, the bar for another rate hike has now risen, a fact that doesn’t speak well about the continued durability of the U.S. economy’s near decade-old recovery from the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession..
In regards to the “50Bs,” the up to $50 billion of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities the Fed has been running off from its balance sheet, the central bank made no change on Wednesday. But in a separate statement, it said it had decided to continue managing policy with a system of “ample” reserves, reinforcing the notion the rundown may end sooner than expected. Trump had also criticized the balance sheet runoff as bad for market liquidity. For roughly two years the Fed has said that raising rates was in fact the best way to ensure continued economic growth by helping guard against inflation, discouraging the worst sorts of asset bubbles, and, in doing so, avoiding the need for rates to rise even higher and faster in the future identifying cufflinks.