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Many investors fear the immediate relief of a China-U.S. deal could be swiftly followed by a bitter confrontation between the EU and its closest ally branded cufflinks singapore. While Germany takes the lion’s share of the EU’s trade surplus with the United States, over 63 billion dollars in 2017, other European countries such as Ireland, Italy or France have a lot to lose if tariffs are imposed on European goods. The diversity of their exports highlights how wide the impact would be. A graphic from the Atlas of Economic Complexity, Center for International Development at Harvard University, shows how French exports in 2016 ranged from wines (3.80 percent) to gas turbines (10.95 percent) and medicines (6.08 percent)..

Analysts trying to decipher the U.S. president’s strategy believe that a confrontation with the EU is a probable next step following the revamping of the North American Free Trade Agreement and his current efforts to slash the U.S. trade deficit with China from a record 375 billion dollars in 2017 branded cufflinks singapore. “We are next in the queue,” warns BNP Paribas’ chief economist William De Vijlder, adding that “the subject of the EU-U.S. trade negotiations has been under the radar up to recently but could resurface soon.”..

Lombard Odier strategist Charles St-Arnaud believes a period of prolonged EU-U.S. tension, with daily incendiary headlines making European markets jittery, is a distinct possibility branded cufflinks singapore. “What Trump tweeted about French wine, I can see the parallel with Canadian milk,” he said recalling the tense U.S. NAFTA negotiations with Canada. On Nov. 13th, Trump complained that while France could easily export wines to the United States, U.S. winemakers’ access to the French market was restricted..

“Not fair, must change”, he said on Twitter. St-Arnaud argues that the threat of a trade war with the United States could mean another grim year for European stocks, which have already suffered collateral damage from the trade spat between the world’s two biggest economies. “A European underperformance is possible in 2019,” he believes branded cufflinks singapore. If the Chinese negotiating team currently in Washington was to achieve significant progress, European stocks would get a boost, at least in the short-term..

“It is crucial for the world economy that this man-made uncertainty ceases,” said De Vijlder. An escalation would meanwhile sharpen the global growth downturn and hit bourses worldwide, according to a big Reuters poll of economists. But while both emerging and European stock markets underperformed Wall Street during 2018 due to the trade stress endured by exporters, European shares remain very much less loved by global investors than their EM peers branded cufflinks singapore. According to data provider EPFR, while emerging markets equity funds have recorded 15 straight weeks of inflows, European funds saw outflows for 45 of the past 46 weeks..